The internationals are out of the way and the diary opens up again.

Perfect time for a simple plan: a few angles you can carry into the next weekend without drowning in spreadsheets.

Think clear markets, repeatable spots, and always price before pride.

Corners: the steady drip

High-tempo sides that push full-backs on and sling early crosses tend to sit near the top of the corners table.

Two matches jump out on Saturday.

First, Bournemouth v Brighton looks tailor-made for flag action — “Over 10.5 corners” is showing around evens (1/1) with Betway, which is a fair starting point for a ladder if team news doesn’t spook you.

If you prefer something a touch safer, Everton v Aston Villa has market support on totals: “Over 9.5 corners” sits roughly 1.8 at Spreadex at time of writing.

Same logic: up-and-down patterns, decent crossing volume, and a price that doesn’t ask you to take a risk.

BTTS-NO / Win to Nil: the mature filter

When an organized favourite meets a side still finding its edge, the clean-sheet angles often pay better than chasing big handicaps.

Arsenal v Nottingham Forest fits that brief. If you get a sensible number, “Arsenal to win to nil” around 2.20 is the adult play — you’re backing control as much as class.

Fancy a continental nibble?

Real Sociedad v Real Madrid on Saturday has that “professional job” smell.

Books have BTTS-No close to 10/11 (1.91) via BetMGM; if Madrid name a proper XI, Madrid & Under-leaning lines and BTTS-No both make sense. Price first, as ever.

Cards: when to swim with or against the tide

Derbies, awkward travel, tired legs… Cards love those ingredients.

But don’t force chaos.

This weekend’s Manchester derby is a nice example of going the other way.

Betfair’s own tipsters are arguing for a quieter game with a builder of “Under 3.5 Goals and Under 4.5 Cards” at about 2.12 (11/10). If the referee profile and recent derby data keep pointing under, you don’t need to be the bravest voice in the pub to take it

“Goals brewing”: trust the process, not last week’s scoreline

There are teams whose finishing lags behind the chances they’re creating.

That’s where team totals can be kinder than threading match odds.

In Germany, Bayern at home to promoted Hamburg is priced with respect for a scoreline.

Over 3.5 goals around 1.59–1.62 has been available with several firms this week and if you can still find ~1.6x, the set-up is obvious.

There may be more..

Start with the above.

For the Premier League:

  • Bournemouth–Brighton (corners)

  • Everton–Villa (corners)

  • Arsenal–Forest (Win to Nil)

  • West Ham–Spurs (check referee data and line moves if you want cards)

  • City–United (consider that under-cards builder if the number holds).

Then scan Spain and Germany for the same patterns

A disciplined favourite for BTTS-No/Win-to-Nil, and a total goals when a juggernaut meets a soft underdog.

If the price isn’t there, pass.

Adults who like profit know passing is a position.

Onwards,

Value Hunter

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