Yesterday I said what most old hands already know.
Winning is harder than it used to be.
The wild west years of sloppy pricing have gone.
The job now is simpler and tougher at the same time. Work harder. Be pickier. Keep winning anyway.
Nowadays you have to draw from three big buckets. Most punters lean on the first two. The third is where a lot of edge still hides, if you are patient enough to look for it and honest enough to act only when the price is right.
Player, team and connections. The people.
This is the human layer and it still matters. Form and confidence tell you how a side or a horse is likely to cope when the match tilts or the race gets rough. Injuries and little niggles are often the difference between a good idea and a bad one. Fatigue and travel miles sap legs and slow reactions. Rhythm after a layoff is rarely instant. Read the people and you are already ahead of most models.Environment and context. The conditions.
Surfaces and going. Weather and wind. Altitude and travel turns. The size of the pitch and the way a ground plays. The referee profile and how often he reaches for the cards. n racing I care about track quirks, a rail movement that creates a draw bias, field size, and whether today’s likely pace will suit our pick or strand it in the wrong place. Context moves prices more than most admit, and it often does so late, which is where we can step in.Market structure and big data. The bits most ignore.
This is where I have leaned in hardest over the years. The favourite and long shot bias still bites when liquidity is thin or when a league flies under the radar on a midweek night. Tennis used to give the clearest example with that Sunday final in Europe followed by a Tuesday opener in Canada. Football and racing have their own modern equivalents if you know where to look.
Alongside the three buckets sits the question that matters every single day. Who do I listen to, and why. I do not follow many tipsters. I keep a small roster and every one of them must earn their place. They are scouts. They surface ideas early.
I then price the idea myself and decide if it deserves a stake.
Time stamped records are a must.
Prices must exist at the main firms or on the exchange when the message lands.
Each tipster needs a clear lane and the discipline to keep it.
During cold spells I want to see smaller stakes, fewer selections, and quiet days when there is no edge.
Respect for the closing price matters over time. If the market moves against them again and again, I stop listening. Skin in the game helps. If someone opens their accounts on camera, better still.
Let us keep our feet on the ground. Big picture numbers will not make you rich on their own. They are not magic. They give you the global picture so you stop fighting the tide.
When you layer that picture with honest form work, sensitivity to price, and a bank you protect like your tools for work, you stop punting on vibes and you start operating like a professional.
Over time in Profolio Daily you will see selections with proper reasoning so you understand why now, at what price, and when I would pass.
You will receive invitations to live open-the-nooks sessions where I log in and show the slips.
You will get practical lessons on price, patience, staking, and knowing when to leave a market alone. You will also see the odd tool, tipster, or site that truly earns its keep, along with a frank note when something gets binned.
Onwards,
Value Hunter
Profolio Daily
