A quick story to set the scene.

A mate of mine subscribed to a six-year veteran football tipster last week.

This service tips short prices in lesser known leagues, mostly 1.40 to 1.70, almost never at evens. 

And the output is thin as well, only five tips a week.

Everything looked safe on his results. 

Within two weeks he suffered a run of six losers. 

He immediately thought the tipster was a fraud (especially since he was from Central Europe). He was not. 

I kept telling him he was simply human, and so were the odds.

Even at comfortable prices, losing streaks are part of the weather. 

And that’s the elephant in the room that most punters do not address:

If a tipster has a 60% strike rate, a nasty little run can still occur. I’m sorry to say it but it’s the truth

The question is not “will this ever happen” but “does this service make sense for my bank, my patience, and the prices I can actually take”.

Here is how to judge a tipster in plain English, with context rather than jargon.

Every service has a natural rhythm. 

Some live at short odds and tick along. 

Some play in the 1/1 to 3/1 range and swing a little more. 

Some chase bigger prices and need you to stay calm through quiet patches. 

Pick the lane that fits your temperament. 

If you hate silence, do not choose a longshot specialist. If you hate drama, do not follow a service that fires ten selections on a Saturday.

This part is hard to swallow but it’s the truth.

Short prices do not remove variance. 

They only soften it.

Over a season you should still expect the odd run of seven or eight losers even when the average selection is odds on. Plan for it in advance so it does not rattle you when it arrives. That means a sensible bank and flat stakes. 

Two to four percent of your bank per bet is plenty.

This is the most practical question of all. 

Follow the service for a week without staking. When a tip drops, write down the advised price and the best price you can get in the first five minutes. 

If you are always ten or twenty ticks worse off, reduce your expectations for profit. 

If the price often shortens by kick off, that is a quiet sign that the edge is real and that others respect it.

A good service can show its history in one click. You want a simple results page with dates, advised odds and settled odds, stakes, and a running profit figure. 

You also want to see the worst drawdown in the last year and the largest losing run. If this is missing, ask. If it cannot be provided, walk away. You are not being awkward. You are protecting your money.

 If they can’t show it in one click, move on.

Read a handful of the tipster’s write ups. 

Do they make sense before the even?

Do they explain why the market is wrong, or are they leaning on colourful language and screenshots. 

A short paragraph that points to team news, style matchups, or objective numbers is enough. It should feel like a quick briefing, not a magic trick.

Don’t be that novice that stakes a quarter of their bank on a bet. If you are staking 10 quids you need at least a £500 bank.

Plain and simple.

 If the service mostly plays in the 1.50 to 1.80 range, a fifty stake bank keeps you out of bother. 

If they sit around events to 3/1, plan for a hundred stakes. 

If they land bigger prices, double that and accept the quiet weeks without sulking. If you hit a patch that takes six or more units, halve stakes for a week and let your head cool.

Ego does not pay.

Green

Red

Tipster X says they target 4/5 to 3/1 and post thirty horse bets a month. 

Over seven days you can usually match the advised price within a few minutes, and by kick off the line has shortened more often than not. 

Their results page shows a worst run of 18 units down last winter and a clear explanation of it. You choose a bank of one hundred stakes and a flat one unit bet. 

You promise yourself you will judge them by months, not by Monday afternoons. That is a service you can follow without whispering at the kettle.

Onwards,
Value Hunter
Profolio Daily